A tumultuous year of renewal and revolt

Restless electorates have voted out incumbent parties worldwide.

Illustration by Jonathan Mchugh / Ikon Images

This has been a landmark year in the history of democracy. More people than ever before – almost two billion – voted in elections. Across radically different countries, there was one consistent trend: incumbents were punished. For the first time in history, every governing party facing election in a developed nation lost vote share.

In the UK, the Conservatives – the Western world’s most successful political party – suffered their worst ever result. In the US, the Democrats lost the popular vote in a presidential election for the first time since 2004; Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party endured its second-worst ever result; and even hegemons such as South Africa’s ANC and India’s BJP lost their majorities.

For Britain, the end of 14 years of Tory rule was a moment of democratic catharsis. The party’s vote share of just 23.7 per cent was testament to its dismal record. For the first time, living standards were lower at the end of the last parliament than at the start. Public services were neglected to the point that schools and hospitals physically collapsed. Net migration was permitted to reach a record high – 906,000 in the year to June 2023 – without any plan to absorb its consequences. Britain became a country more pitied than admired.

Labour, which some predicted in 2019 would never return to office, won its second-largest victory (a 174-seat majority). Keir Starmer transformed his party into a credible governing force once more by confronting its fundamental weaknesses. He deserves credit, in particular, for rooting out the poison of anti-Semitism.

But Labour’s landslide owed more to anti-Tory sentiment than to popular enthusiasm – a fact reflected in a vote share of just 33.7 per cent. We warned before the election that the party’s support was “broad but shallow” and its vague pledges meant it would have a “thin mandate”. So it has proved. Labour rapidly became unpopular, accused of breaching pre-election promises.

Rachel Reeves’ Budget announced that the tax take would reach a record high of 38.2 per cent of GDP and increased public investment to its highest sustained level since the 1970s. For the Conservatives, this was a reminder that elections have consequences. Far from embracing the free-market model that some Brexiteers championed, the UK is moving closer towards social-democratic Europe.

For the Democrats in the US, the consequences of defeat could be far graver. The party has lost control of every branch of government and faces a conservative Supreme Court majority.

At first sight, little may seem to connect Donald Trump’s triumph to Labour’s. But the roots of discontent were strikingly similar: stagnant living standards, uncontrolled borders, a quarrelsome ruling party. Just as some lifelong Conservatives voted Labour for the first time, so lifelong Democrats defected to the Republicans. Rather than simply relying on “angry white men”, Trump expanded his electoral coalition, achieving swings among women, Latino and black voters. Here was proof of the liberal fallacy that a more diverse electorate is invariably a progressive one.

In an age of discontent, traditional allegiances are fraying across the West. The German chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government has collapsed and the Social Democrats are polling behind the far-right Alternative for Germany. France’s Marine Le Pen could become the country’s next president in 2027. And Italy’s Giorgia Meloni remains the country’s most popular politician two years after entering office.

Faced with such upheavals, some liberals reach for conspiracy theories or – after Bertolt Brecht – yearn to dissolve the people. But this thinking has led only to repeated defeats.

Rather than impugning voters’ motives, progressives need to grapple with their real grievances: over the economy, public services and immigration. In the UK and Europe, living standards are little higher than they were before the 2008 financial crisis. The surprise, in these circumstances, is that the backlash has not been greater.

To some, the revolt against incumbents is emblematic of a dark populist turn. But this is democracy at its purest: voters will continue to eject governments until they deliver results. Those that succeed may just find they are rewarded.

We wish all of our readers a happy Christmas and a peaceful New Year.